Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro in a Statistical Dead Heat in the Final Days before Brazil’s Second Round Presidential Election

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Issue Oct 14-20, 2026: President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro headed into the final days of the campaign for the October 25 runoff in a statistical tie, according to new polls. A Datafolha survey gave Bolsonaro 51% of valid votes and Lula 49%, compared with 52% and 48% a week earlier, with a margin of error of two points. Commentators had thoughts.

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