In Argentina, Javier Milei Faces an Economic Test and Tensions within ‘La Libertad Avanza’
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Issue Oct 14-20, 2026: The Argentine president has begun laying the groundwork for his reelection bid while attempting to maintain his economic course, secure support in Congress, and address electoral reform. Debates surrounding the PASO (open primary) system, public spats, and the positioning of Patricia Bullrich all point to a campaign that has already firmly taken root in the government’s agenda.
In PERFIL Magazine of Argentina, Diego Caniglia wrote that the countdown to the 2027 presidential election has already begun at the Casa Rosada. Although it is still a year before Argentines head back to the polls, Javier Milei has started organizing his strategy around reelection, a process unfolding against a backdrop of economic hardship, complex political negotiations, and increasingly visible rifts within the ruling coalition. The campaign has arrived ahead of the official timeline, transforming various issues into urgent matters that the government must resolve before fully entering the electoral fray.
The president frequently asserts that the continuation of his economic program will allow the country to move past current hardships and usher in a period of growth. The challenge, however, lies in ensuring that this promise translate into tangible improvements for households. While the slowdown in inflation serves as a key talking point for the libertarian administration, the cost of living, employment levels, and consumption patterns continue to shape public expectations—and could prove to be decisive factors when it comes time to evaluate the administration’s performance.
Inflation remains a primary indicator for gauging the success of the economic program. Although current figures are well below the levels seen at the end of 2023, the persistence of monthly price increases continues to strain family budgets. For the government, the goal is to solidify stabilization without the difficulties of this transition eroding the political support needed to secure a second term. Compounding this scenario is an uneven recovery. While the energy and mining sectors, along with parts of the agricultural sector, face a more favorable outlook, industries such as manufacturing, retail, and construction are encountering greater difficulties. This disparity presents a central dilemma for the Casa Rosada: while performance in certain sectors may improve aggregate indicators, it does not necessarily translate into a broad-based recovery in employment and income.
The trajectory of the real economy will be decisive for the ruling administration. The promise that austerity will usher in an era of prosperity requires tangible results before the presidential campaign begins to dominate the agenda. Milei must sustain the expectation of a future recovery, even as a segment of society continues to face significant hardships in their daily lives.
In this context, Córdoba remains a favorable district for Milei, though public opinion indicators show some signs of erosion. According to a survey by Dialogía—conducted between October 11 and 16 with a sample of 700 respondents—the president’s approval rating in the province stands at 44.9%, compared to a 54.8% disapproval rating. Alongside the assessment of his administration, he maintains a 46.3% positive personal image, placing him second among the national political figures surveyed, behind Patricia Bullrich. In terms of electoral potential, Milei commands 48.2% of the vote. Santiago Martínez Luque, director of the consulting firm, noted that “without a doubt, Córdoba is the district where the president fares best.”
The scenario also shows him holding an advantage over Axel Kicillof in a potential presidential runoff. In such a scenario, the president would secure 47.9% of the vote, compared to 34.4% for the governor of Buenos Aires province. The survey also explored the foundations of support for the government: 46.2% agree that the national administration has made citizens “freer” and that the state “should not regulate the economy so much.” Meanwhile, 47% believe that the recession “is a phase that will pass” and that support for Milei should continue. Conversely, 52.1% agree with the assertion that the president “is destroying the state to benefit the private sector.”
The debate surrounding the Open, Simultaneous, and Mandatory Primaries (PASO) has become another front in the electoral strategy. The government seeks to eliminate or suspend them, but it must secure the necessary votes in Congress and negotiate with allies who have their own interests. The outcome will influence how alliances are formed for 2027.