Flávio Bolsonaro Defied Polls and Edged Out Lula in Brazil’s First-Round Election

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Issue Sep 30-Oct 06 2026: On October 4, 2026, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro won around 47% of the vote in the first round of Brazil’s presidential election, ahead of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who took about 45%. As neither passed half of the valid votes, the two will face each other in a runoff on October 25. Lacking the charisma of his father, former President Jair Bolsonaro, the conservative senator went from being an unknown figure to a favorite for the Brazilian presidency in the second round, a result not predicted in the polls. Commentators around the region and across the ideological spectrum offered thoughts.

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