Colombians Elect Iván Duque as President

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On June 17, 2018, Iván Duque, the candidate for Colombia’s rightwing Centro Democrático Party, took 54% of the vote in Colombia’s second-round presidential election, decisively defeating the candidate of the imperfectly united political left, Gustavo Petro, who received 42% of the votes cast. The pro-business and anti-guerrilla protégé of former President Álvaro Uribe, Duque has promised to keep Colombia’s business-friendly economic policies in place, and rework the peace accord with the FARC negotiated by outgoing President Juan Manuel Santos. Yet, he will face opposition in Congress, led by Petro, who had the most impressive showing for a leftist candidate on the national level in Colombian history. Pundits on the left and right offered interpretations and judgements.

The Second Round

La Jornada of Mexico City reported that Iván Duque won the presidency of Colombia with 53.98% of votes. They noted Duque’s pledge that the peace Colombians “long for” and which “demands corrections,” will now be possible, “putting the victims” (of the FARC, but not necessarily of the government or the paramilitaries) at the “center of the process to guarantee truth, justice, and reparations.” (During his campaign, he proposed a legal reform that would prohibit guerrilla leaders who committed war crimes from participating in politics until they have compensated their victims.) La Jornada also pointed to the 41.81% of the vote garnered by the leftist former mayor of Bogotá (and former M-19 guerrilla), Gustavo Petro. The president-elect promised to unify the country around objectives such as development of the poorest and most violent areas of Colombia, and assured Colombians that in his government there will be no revenge or reprisals. For his part, as Petro conceded to Duque, he promised Colombians that he would not allow the country to fall back into war. Duque won 24 of Colombia’s 32 departments, and absenteeism was 48%, in line with the historical average of 50%. The 41-year-old lawyer will became the youngest president elected in Colombia since 1872. Duque’s running mate, Marta Lucía Ramírez, will be Colombia’s first woman vice president.

MercoPress of Montevideo noted that Duque thanked voters with “humility and honor,” and told the Colombian people, “I will give all my energies to unite our country. No more divisions…I will not govern with hatred.” Petro, who won 8 million votes to the 10.3 million for Duque, said, “We accept Duque’s triumph. He is the president of the Republic of Colombia… Today we are the opposition to his government.” Petro will now serve in the Senate. MercoPress pointed to the “significant challenges” Duque will face when he takes office in August: “The economy remains weak; drug trafficking gangs have moved into areas once controlled by the FARC and more than half a million Venezuelan migrants have crossed into Colombia, looking for food and work.” FARC leader Rodrigo Londoño, known as Timochenko, congratulated Duque on Twitter, calling for reconciliation and saying he respected Colombians’ decision.

El Tiempo of Bogotá wrote that “anti-corruption, security, and quest for justice” will be “the main axes” of the Duque administration. They noted that during the eight-year tenure of Duque’s mentor, President Álvaro Uribe (2002-2010), “democratic security” was the catch phrase, and that “the Duque government will surely be influenced by Uribe’s security concept.” Yet, they argued, Duque’s “security” has to go hand in hand with “justice” (for all), since he said his aim is “to build consensus so that Colombia has credible and effective justice.” They also noted that Duque will not be able to “shred” the agreement with the FARC, no matter what he said during the campaign.

CartaCapital Magazine of Brazil observed that “the protracted conflict with the guerrillas” had postponed “for decades” a more “traditional duel between right and left” about economic policy in the fourth largest economy of Latin America, and that it still influences how the political outcome of the election should be interpreted. There was also the impact of the Venezuelan crisis, and the huge numbers of refugees pouring across the border.

In Razónpublica of Bogotá, Nicolás Liendo began by “highlighting the good news for Colombian democracy” in the recent election. It was “the most peaceful in history, with no candidates murdered, with no polling stations threatened, with voters able to freely express their political will.” There was also a “substantial increase in electoral participation.” He then went on to explore the “reasons for Duque’s triumph.” These include his youth, which resonated with a younger population, the continuing power of Uribismo, Duque’s capture of the non-Uribista center, Petro’s failure to fully unify the left, and finally, Colombian discomfort with Petro’s more radical economic model.

Duque, Uribismo, the Peace Accord, and Coming Challenges

Many observers stressed Duque’s connection to Uribe. Daniel Lozano argued in La Nación of Buenos Aires that “with the broad triumph of Duque, the right returns to power in Colombia,” and in particular, the influence of the former president. Duque’s pledge to “correct” the peace accord was “music” to Uribe’s ears. Uribe and his supporters saw the direction taken by his handpicked successor, Juan Manuel Santos, as a “betrayal,” and fiercely opposed his peace agreement with the FARC.

José Meléndez wrote in El Universal of Mexico City that Iván Duque was “the candidate in the shadow of Uribe,” who struggled throughout the campaign to rid himself of the perception that he was merely “a pawn of Álvaro Uribe’s political machinery.”

Katalina Vásquez Guzmán wrote in Página/12 of Buenos Aires that “Iván Duque, Uribe’s heir, won in Colombia.” She argued that his victory demonstrated “that the majority of Colombians do not embrace the peace agreement that brought an end of war, but rather support the path of force and reform of the peace treaty proposed by the right.”

Yet, Semana Magazine of Bogotá noted that at the top of Duque’s agenda will also be the “delicate” talks with Colombia’s remaining guerrilla group, the ELN, in progress in Havana, Cuba. ELN leader Pablo Beltrán warned that the peace process “has to continue,” because the eight million votes that Gustavo Petro obtained are a reflection of Colombians’ desire for a negotiated peace.

In La Tercera of Santiago, Valentina Jofré wondered what form the “corrections” to the peace agreement will take, and noted that they will not be easy.

In Proceso Magazine of Mexico, Rafael Croda noted that the first challenge for “the right-winger Iván Duque” will be “to demonstrate that former President Álvaro Uribe, his political mentor, will not be the power in the shadows.”

Santiago La Rotta argued in El Espectador of Bogotá that increasing growth of the economy will be the great challenge for Iván Duque. He must deal with pension reform, streamline and increase government revenue, and find a way to diversify the economy away from reliance on hydrocarbons and other raw materials.

In El Tiempo of Bogotá, Juan Lozano looked at the future battles of Iván Duque, and argued that he should listen to the experts and the young, not mistreat the Santos people, find a way to deal with government corruption and waste, and remember that Petro and company will be waiting for another shot at the presidency in four years.

Petro and the Colombian Left

Juanita León noted in La Silla Vacía of Colombia that Petro was proclaimed leader of the opposition with designs on 2022 (and 2019). Petro, after noting the “milestone in the history of this country, getting eight million votes despite having all the sectors of traditional political power” united against him, did not feel “defeated.” “We’re not complaining, whining because we’re not in the Casa de Nariño. It’s a struggle of decades.” “Today, we are the opposition to this government,” he said, “the resistance.” Petro reiterated that they will oppose the dependence on coal and oil, fight the obstacles to peace, and work to adjust taxes and increase social justice. Now “corruption” and the “traditional political class” are “mortally wounded.”

Yann Basset noted in Razónpublica of Bogotá that while “Petro’s campaign was not without errors, he managed to attract a constant flow of endorsements by personalities from the political, intellectual, and artistic worlds.” These were important “because they helped to soften Petro’s image of a messianic improviser who was unable to work with a team in the first round.” While deep divisions remain on the Colombian left, “Petro showed that those who said his presidential candidacy was unfeasible were wrong. He managed to mobilize a young electorate, enthusiastic, formerly little inclined to electoral participation.”

In Página/12 of Buenos Aires, Atilio A. Boron argued that Petro “threatened as never before the forces of the old Colombian social and political order.” His performance “marks the beginning of the end of an era.”

Editorial Comment From Across the Political Spectrum

In its editorial, Folha de S. Paulo pointed to the ironies surrounding the outgoing Santos administration. While he leaves the presidency with an approval of around 20%, during his two terms the economy grew satisfactorily with unemployment and inflation under control. His peace deal with the FARC ended seven decades of conflict, and had broad international support, winning him the Nobel Peace Prize in 2016. His low approval numbers stem from the controversial nature of the peace accord, which, of necessity, gave the former guerrillas a new role in politics.

La Tercera of Santiago editorialized that Duque’s victory marks the “Triumph of Uribismo” in Colombia, and the demand to “correct” the peace accord, which many Colombians feel was too generous to the former guerrillas. Yet the outcome also clearly showed that “there is no broad consensus within Colombian society about the agreement.”

El Observador of Montevideo’s editorial looked at the economic nature of the left/right contest, and argued that “the result predicts a better future for the country, in contrast to the backwardness of the authoritarian populism of Chavismo” in Venezuela. It demonstrated that Colombians opted for “sustained development.”

In El Espectador of Bogotá, Solomon Kalmanovitz, noted that Duque owes his political career to Álvaro Uribe, who cleared his path to the Senate, and now the presidency. Duque has “little rigorous training in economics or in the social sciences.” Kalmanovitz thinks it is likely that he will remain “very dependent on the architect of the right-wing coalition that brought him to power, former president Uribe.” “It will be a government that will seek to reduce the size of the State, still in the thrall of clientelism and endemic corruption, while returning taxes to the rich.” Expect “difficult times.”

In Página/12 of Buenos Aires, Alfredo Serrano Mancilla and Gisela Brito argued that while Duque won with clear majority, Petro made historic progress, and it is certain that “Colombia will not be the same after these presidential elections.” He also achieved his historic following “without hiding behind any disguise.” He laid out his leftist and progressive ideas clearly, without much of a political machine to back him up, and with scarce economic resources. Now there are “two Colombias, one progressive and the other reactionary.”

And in El Espectador of Bogotá, Aldo Civico wondered, “[C]an Iván Duque be a bridge president?” Can he unite the country, strengthen its democracy, boost its development, and consolidate its peace?