General Election 2024 in Uruguay
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Issue Oct 23-29 2024: On Sunday, October 27, 2024, Uruguayans went to the polls to elect the president and vice president for the 2025-2030 period, as well as the 30 seats in the Senate and the 99 in the House of Representatives. The contest witnessed high turnout, with over 90% of Uruguay’s 2.7 million eligible voters casting ballots; voting is mandatory in Uruguay. Uruguayan political stability has been a source of pride and international respect since its return to democracy in 1985. Two presidential candidates will move on to the second round: Yamandú Orsi, candidate of the Frente Amplio, who led with 43.94%; and Álvaro Delgado of the Partido Nacional who received 26.77%. Political professionals across the ideological spectrum anticipate a very tight race.
Before the Contest
Página/12 of Buenos Aires wrote that polls anticipated a victory for the Frente Amplio leftist coalition, but by a difference of less than one and a half percent, so the presidential election would likely be decided in a second round. “For the Frente Amplio, the traditional party that represents progressivism and that has former president José Pepe Mujica as one of its main representatives, Yamandú Orsi, a 57-year-old history professor, will try to reach the presidency. He leads the voting intention with more than 41%. He is followed by the candidates of the main parties of the coalition headed by President Lacalle Pou, who has a 47% approval rating but cannot seek immediate reelection according to the Constitution. The candidate of the Partido Nacional Party is Álvaro Delgado, a 55-year-old veterinarian who was secretary of the presidency of Lacalle Pou and has around 20% of the support. For the also historic Partido Colorado, Andrés Ojeda, a young 40-year-old lawyer who has been baptized as the Uruguayan Javier Milei and is presented in the media as the ‘renewal’ of politics, is running with 15% of the support.”
La Jornada of Mexico City noted that along with the presidential and congressional contests, there would also be two plebiscites on the ballot, one attempting to expand social security, and another to allow police to do night raids. Orsi closed his campaign in Parque Batlle, in Montevideo. He promised economic growth and stability, as well as true social protection, with an impact on all segments of the population, including those who are homeless. Former President José Mujica made a brief appearance at a campaign event in support of Orsi, in the midst of his convalescence from cancer. “I am an old man who is very close to undertaking the withdrawal from which there is no return, but I am happy because you are here, because when my arms leave there will be thousands of arms replacing the fight,” he said. La Jornada reported that “amid applause from his supporters; not a few cried.” Delgado closed his campaign in the department of Canelones, just as the current president, Luis Lacalle Pou, did in the 2019 elections. In his speech, he urged the undecided not to let others decide for them and then assured that the future of Uruguay is at stake in this election. Ojeda compared himself to Argentine President Javier Milei, but defended the role of the State.
DiarioUChile spoke with political scientist David Altman who said the campaign had been “quite boring,” but in the last few days began to build up a “little more steam, tension, and friction.” On the positioning of the FA, he said they are a “robust, strong opposition,” with “a candidate who has experience in the departmental local government of the second most important department in the country.” Orsi, close to the very popular Pepe Mujica, has the strong backing of the FA, but Delgado is the stand in for President Lacalle, who commands “an unprecedented approval” of “basically 50%,” which one week before the general election “is very high.”
In O Globo of Rio de Janeiro, Janaína Figueiredo noted that “after leaving power in 2019, after three consecutive presidential terms, the left-wing coalition of the FA of former president José “Pepe” Mujica (2010-2015) enters the Uruguayan elections today with the hope of a grand comeback.” Orsi, “a 57-year-old former mayor” has the crucial support of Mujica, “one of the country’s greatest political leaders of all time. At 89 years old, and fighting to recover from esophageal cancer, the former president moved not only coalition voters, but much of the country, with a speech at the end of Orsi’s campaign, in which he stated that ‘the best leaders are those who leave behind a group that surpasses them by a large margin.’”
After the Voting
LaRed21 of Uruguay reported that Orsi received 43.94% of the votes cast, totaling more than one million votes. In second place Delgado got 26.77% of the vote, which represents a total of 644,147 votes. Delgado maintained a considerable distance from Orsi, and his position in the vote suggests that his support is concentrated in some key departments, such as Artigas and Cerro Largo. “However, the distance with respect to the Frente Amplio” could play out differently in the second round. “Meanwhile, Andrés Ojeda, representative of the Colorado Party, occupied the third position with 16.03% of the votes, equivalent to 385,685 votes. Despite not achieving a competitive figure against the first two candidates, the support for Ojeda stands out in some smaller departments, reflecting the persistent base of Colorado support in the Uruguayan electorate.” “The total vote reached 2,441,238 votes, of which 64,807 were blank and 53,791 spoiled.” “The preliminary results also show an interesting geographic segmentation in the support for the different candidates. Yamandú Orsi stands out in the department of Canelones, where he obtained 48.98% of the votes, as well as in Colonia and Durazno, consolidating himself in several strategic regions of the country. Meanwhile, Álvaro Delgado leads in Artigas with 38.53% and in Cerro Largo with 44.09%, departments in which the PN maintains a strong historical influence.
Since no candidate reached the 50% necessary to ensure a victory in the first round, a second round “raises a series of questions about possible alliances and vote regroupings between candidates from traditional parties and independents of lesser scope. The second round could define an even more polarized contest between the Frente Amplio and the Partido Nacional.”
MercoPress of Montevideo noted that “the mood was jubilant at FA’s gathering in Montevideo, where Orsi addressed supporters, expressing optimism despite the need for a runoff.” “Today is a night of joy, of celebration of democracy,” he said to cheers from the crowd. Orsi stressed the FA’s position as Uruguay’s largest political force, a title it has held in past elections, and urged supporters to rally for the final push in November. “Let’s go for that last effort, with more enthusiasm than ever,” he emphasized, urging unity among the diverse coalition of voters that brought FA its first-round victory. In contrast, Delgado’s supporters gathered at Montevideo’s Varela Square, celebrating the PN’s resurgence in this election cycle. Addressing the crowd from a stage draped with the Uruguayan flag, Delgado said, “The ballot boxes spoke. Uruguay expressed itself and said that the coalition is the most voted political project in the country.” The NP candidate, who served as Secretary of the Presidency under Luis Lacalle Pou’s administration, expressed confidence in the coalition’s potential to secure a win in the second round.
“Alongside the presidential election, Uruguayans voted on two constitutional reforms. The first, supported by the national workers’ federation PIT-CNT and some factions within the FA, proposed changes to the social security system. The proposed amendment would have reduced the retirement age from 65 to 60, adjusted pensions to the minimum wage, and eliminated private pension funds. This measure ultimately failed, receiving 40% of the vote—10 points below the required majority. The second proposal, which sought to authorize nighttime police raids, also failed, gathering similar levels of support.”
“With the stakes set high, the second round promises to be one of Uruguay’s most competitive elections in recent history. Both campaigns have acknowledged the peaceful and celebratory spirit that marked election day, underscoring Uruguay’s status as one of the world’s few full democracies according to The Economist’s Democracy Index.”
In El Universal of Mexico City, Inés Amézaga Feijoo reported that the Senate will only have representation from the three major parties: the FA obtained a majority with 16 seats, picking up 3; the National Party with 9, losing 1; and the Partido Colorado with 5, gaining 1. “In the House of Representatives, the scenario is novel in that there will be no party with a majority.” The FA obtained 48 seats (wining six more), the Coalición Republicana got 49 and will need to seek the favor of Identidad Soberana, with two seats.
Analysis and Opinion
MercoPress of Montevideo noted that the election took place in a context of citizen interest in “iron fist” policies to fight insecurity across the region. A recent study conducted by the Latin American Faculty of Social Sciences (FLACSO) and the University of Santiago de Chile (USACH) revealed that citizens in Ecuador, Costa Rica, Chile, and Uruguay are increasingly open to harsh punitive measures, or mano dura, as a response to rising insecurity. The research pointed to a widespread sense of fear and frustration among citizens, with 67% expressing a feeling of institutional abandonment. The project, titled Mano Dura y Erosión Democrática en América Latina involved interviews with over 500 individuals from the four countries. It shows that 58% of respondents have positive perceptions of mano dura, especially in Ecuador and Costa Rica, where concerns about organized crime and violence are most acute. Nonetheless, Chile and Uruguay led in negative perceptions, with 39% and 31% of respondents opposing such measures. Lucía Dammert, coordinator of the project, noted that there is a “positive view” of what Nayib Bukele (president of El Salvador) has done, “because he has had results.” Yet, Dammert warned that while citizens admire tough approaches, they generally do not want extreme actions like closing Congress or military intervention at home, except in very rare cases. “People want effective measures, but they also value democratic norms,” she added.
El Tiempo of Bogotá noted that “despite winning in the first round, the left faces a tight race with the ruling party.” They pointed out that PN and the Colorados, “which competed separately in this first round, will join forces for the runoff with two other groups, with which they make up the current coalition government that will seek to repeat the triumph of 2019, with Luis Lacalle Pou. In this sense, the official coalition obtained 48% of the votes against 44% of the FA.”
In La Nación of Buenos Aires, Ramiro Pellet Lastra noted that the two candidates who made it to the runoff are drawing up their strategies; “the Frente Amplio felt the impact of a lower than expected performance that forces it to redouble its efforts.” Orsi, “who after the shock of not having reached the expected numbers went out to give an interview with channel 12, after having been reluctant to expose himself during the entire campaign to a demanding examination of his proposals.” “The mood was not the best in the ranks of the Frente Amplio. ‘I think the plebiscites mixed up the deck,’” said, for example, former Vice President Lucía Topolansky. “The Frente Amplio voted better than in the last election, which between the first and second it recovered and grew. The question now is whether in these elections they have enough room to grow as in 2019, against a coalition that will not have a vote leak,” journalist and political analyst Mauricio Rabuffetti told journalists.
La Nación of Buenos Aires also spoke with the former president of Uruguay, Julio María Sanguinetti, who said it was “an important, normal election, with a civic, respectful, and respectable climate.” “We are going to the second round with all expectations open and with a more favorable expectation for the party in power, given the reality in the country. The candidate Orsi himself recognizes that the country is stable, has had growth, has a reasonable inflation, has improved real wages, has improved the level of employment. We are not living in a paradise, one never does, but we’re on the best possible path,” said Sanguinetti. And he added: “Those who voted today for the PN, the Colorados, the Open Cabildo Abierto, and the Partido Independiente will repeat it in the runoff, so the FA should not celebrate today because it cannot live up to its expectations, even though it had a very important vote; and the Coalición Republicana will reaffirm its position.”
In La República of Montevideo, Juan Carlos Blanco Sommaruga wrote that FA stood out as the party with the greatest increase in its percentage of votes, reaching 44.1% in this first round, which represents a notable advance compared to 39.01% in 2019. This growth can be attributed to a combination of factors, including a more effective campaign strategy and a renewed focus on social issues that resonate with the electorate. The management of the pandemic and its economic consequences also left a mark on public opinion, and the FA has been able to capitalize on the need for a progressive approach to these challenges, plus the issues of corruption identified with the current administration. Certainly, “the results of the 2024 elections reflect a changing political landscape. Parties that have been able to adapt to the needs of the electorate and offer clear proposals have made significant progress. On the other hand, those who have failed to connect with citizens face an uncertain future. It is crucial to observe how these changes will impact the country’s politics and power dynamics in the coming years. The ability of each party to respond to the expectations and demands of citizens will be decisive on the road to the second round.”
El País of Montevideo offered an editorial counseling that “to win the second round, all the drive, strength, and determination that Álvaro Delgado displayed when speaking on Sunday night in Plaza Varela will be needed. And more will have to be put in as well.” With the support of the entire Coalición Republicana, “Delgado showed himself to be a true presidential candidate that night. But to get there, he will need every vote possible. Searching for them door to door, neighborhood by neighborhood, town by town.” What is more, the “election result left a strange feeling. On the one hand, the perception that the FA would have more votes than those of the Coalición was ruled out the very minute that the different pollsters released their first projections. The data was sustained throughout the night.” Yet, “outlook is not easy for anyone. The Coalición will not have a majority in the Senate and the Frente Amplio would not have a majority in the Chamber of Deputies.” Also, the FA “appeared timid on Sunday night, but that does not mean that it cannot overcome the bad moment (generated because it had excessive expectations) and win in the second round. Nobody has won this game.”
And in La República of Montevideo, Víctor Palacios wrote that “everything depends on how they capitalize on the election results.” If the FA puts itself in the place of unfulfilled expectations, “that does not excite,” while “in the Coalición there is a lot of triumphalism because it did not have the expectations that the main candidate would do well.” Also, those voting blank “reached 4.93%,” which means that there are voters for both sides to win over. In the end, these are two coalitions offering “two models for country and two ways of doing politics.”